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命运多舛的世界航空公司业刚从“9.11”事件和“非典”两大灾难的冲击后稍稍缓过一口气来,又面临着前所未有的油价高水平。每桶原油的标价由2004年初的三十多美元迅速攀升到年中的四十多美元,10月份则飙过了55美元的高峰。 一时间航空公司的股价又泛起绿潮。刚开始为民营低成本航空公司在中国露头而欣喜的中国消费者和媒体纷纷猜测:“油价升了,机票价格上涨还会远吗”?许多业内同仁或业外的经济学家则聚焦在民航的管制政策上:民航局明令取消的燃油附加费应否恢复?目前的机票公布价要不要更上一层楼?成本上涨了,价格似乎是当然的排泄口。也有不少人寄希望于期货市场,呼吁民航局为航空公司打开通往期贷市场的大门,用期货保值交易来对冲高油价的冲击。 本文试图从更广阔的视野来探讨这些问题和对策,有些想法同业内流行的观点不尽相同,提出来与同行们商榷,以期兼听则明。
The Fateful World Airlines The airline industry has only had a slight relief from the shocks of the “September 11” incident and the “SARS” disaster and is facing unprecedented high oil prices. The price of a barrel of crude oil rose rapidly from more than 30 U.S. dollars in early 2004 to more than 40 U.S. dollars in mid-year, surpassing the peak of 55 U.S. dollars in October. At a time the share price of airlines has also emerged in the green tide. Chinese consumers and the media, who were just beginning to delight private Chinese low-cost airlines in China, have speculated: “Oil prices have risen far behind ticket prices.” Many industry colleagues or economists outside the industry are focused Civil Aviation regulatory policy: Civil Aviation Authority ordered to cancel the fuel surcharges should be restored? The current price of air tickets to the next level? The cost increases, the price seems to be excuse. Many people also pin their hopes on the futures market and call on the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) to open the door for the airline companies to access the market through the futures market, hedging the impact of high oil prices with hedging transactions. This article attempts to explore these problems and countermeasures from a broader perspective. Some of the ideas differ from those prevailing in the industry and are proposed to be discussed with colleagues for the purpose of listening to others.