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当前,中国生态足迹已严重超出生态承载力范围,省际差异较大。为探究生态足迹增长的社会经济因素,基于2003-2013年中国30个省份生态足迹计算结果,利用空间杜宾面板STIRPAT模型及空间回归偏微分方法对影响省域生态足迹变化的社会经济影响因素及空间效应分解为直接效应与溢出效应。结果表明:(1)促进中国省域生态增长的直接效应主要有人口规模、社会富裕程度、城镇化率;提高科技水平与对外开放程度能够显著抑制各省域生态足迹的增长。(2)人口规模、对外开放程度对生态足迹有显著的溢出效应,同时城镇化率与工业结构的溢出效应不显著。从政策角度,降低省域生态足迹不仅要优化本地区的影响因素,也要考虑毗邻省份的彼此影响,加强科技水平与对外开放程度的合作。
At present, China’s ecological footprint has seriously exceeded the scope of ecological carrying capacity, large differences between provinces. In order to explore the socio-economic factors of ecological footprint growth, based on the results of ecological footprint calculation in 30 provinces of China from 2003 to 2013, the socio-economic factors influencing the ecological footprints of provincial provinces were analyzed by using STIRPAT model and spatial regression partial differential method. The spatial effect is decomposed into the direct effect and the spillover effect. The results show that: (1) The direct effects of promoting the provincial ecological growth in China are mainly population size, social affluence and urbanization rate; increasing the level of science and technology and opening to the outside world can significantly reduce the growth of ecological footprint in all provinces. (2) The scale of population and the degree of opening to the outside world have a significant spillover effect on ecological footprint, while the spillover effect between urbanization rate and industrial structure is not significant. From a policy perspective, reducing the provincial ecological footprint should not only optimize the impact of the region’s factors, but also consider the mutual influence of neighboring provinces and strengthen cooperation in science and technology with the degree of opening to the outside world.