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就登月任务而言,由于对月球着落点、入轨和任务程序有严峻的条件要求,运载器在精确时间发射是个关键。土星V运载火箭和其地面设备是用来满足这些条件的,因而它们组成了一个由百万多个元件构成的高度复杂系统。这些元件中任何一个发生故障,都能影响任务的完成。因此,这些元件都必须具有高度的可靠性。美国亚拉巴马州亨茨维尔波音公司帮助国家航宇局马歇尔空间飞行中心搞了一个土星V系统可靠性分析,旨在详细地了解土星V在发射前的性能。这种系统分析是由一个大规模数字模拟计算机模型组成,用这个模型分析和模拟土星V运载火箭的操作、测试和发射动作。这个模型接受和分析土星V系统的可靠性数据、维修数据和工作时间程序,以便确定它们对土星V系统有效性的影响。在土星V系统可靠性分析方案中用的失效率分类怯,就是把预测数据变换成评估数据。这种变换过程是,通过采用贝叶斯方法和经典方法把预测的失效率和现场失效率数据综合在一起,使土星V系统管理模型的输出有新的意义和响应。
As far as the lunar mission is concerned, launching the carrier at the exact time is a key issue due to the harsh conditions required for lunar landing, derailment and mission procedures. Saturn V launch vehicles and their ground equipment are used to meet these conditions, and they form a highly complex system of more than a million components. Failure of any one of these components can affect the completion of the task. Therefore, these components must all have a high degree of reliability. Huntsville, Alabama, USA Boeing helped NASA Marshall Space Flight Center conduct a Saturn V system reliability analysis designed to provide a detailed understanding of Saturn V’s performance prior to launch. This system analysis consists of a large-scale digital simulation computer model that analyzes and simulates the operation, testing, and launch of the Saturn V carrier rocket. This model accepts and analyzes Saturn V system reliability data, maintenance data, and working hours programs to determine their effect on Saturn V system effectiveness. The failure rate classification used in the Saturn V system reliability analysis program is to transform the prediction data into evaluation data. The transformation process combines the predicted failure rate with the field failure rate data using Bayesian and classical methods to bring new meanings and responses to Saturn’s V system management output.