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目的分析“传染病自动预警系统”在白银市开展的运行情况,为提高预警工作质量提供依据。方法对2008年4月21日~2014年12月31日白银市传染病自动预警资料,应用SPSS 19.0软件对3 711条预警信号的基本特征进行描述性统计分析,率的比较采用χ~2检验,多组中位数的比较采用Kruskal-Wallis H秩和检验,趋势分析采用χ_(趋势)~2检验,P<0.05为差异有统计学意义。结果 2008-2014年,白银市预警系统发出3 711条预警信号,共涉及病种19种,响应率达100.00%,2h内、24h内响应率分别为93.56%和97.14%,两者各年度均呈上升趋势(χ_(趋势)~2=330.97,χ_(趋势)~2=214.14,均P<0.01),响应时间中位数(P25~P75)为0.24(-0.02~0.52)h,经初步核实判断为疑似事件52起,现场调查确认暴发事件40起,预警信号阳性率为1.08%。其中,固定阈值法发出预警信号186条,涉及8种传染病,2h内、24h内响应率各为97.31%、100.00%,响应时间中位数(P25~P75)为0.09(0.04~0.20)h,各年度呈缩短趋势(H=17.370,P<0.01),确诊病例30例,疑似事件2起,暴发疫情1起,预警信号阳性率为0.54%;时间模型法发出预警信号3 525条,涉及13种传染病,2h内、24h内响应率各为93.36%、96.99%,响应时间中位数(P25~P75)为0.25(-0.03~0.54)h,各年度呈缩短趋势(H=746.332,P<0.01),疑似事件50起,暴发疫情39起,预警信号阳性率为1.11%。结论传染病自动预警系统在白银市运行平稳,预警信号响应率、响应及时性保持在较高水平,但还需不断加强传染病网络直报质量,对于疑似事件判定标准的建立、预警信号特异性的提高还有待进一步探讨。
Objective To analyze the operation of the Automatic Early Warning System for Infectious Diseases in Baiyin City and provide the basis for improving the quality of early warning work. Methods From April 21, 2008 to December 31, 2014, the automatic warning data of infectious diseases in Baiyin City were analyzed. Descriptive statistical analysis was made on the basic characteristics of 3 711 early warning signals using SPSS 19.0 software. The rates were compared using χ ~ 2 test . The median of multiple groups was compared by Kruskal-Wallis H rank sum test. The trend analysis was analyzed byχ ~ (trend) ~ 2 test. P <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results From 2008 to 2014, the warning system of silver city issued 3 711 warning signals, involving 19 kinds of diseases, the response rate was 100.00%. Within 2 hours, the response rates within 24 hours were 93.56% and 97.14% respectively, both of which were (Trend) ~ 2 = 330.97, χ_ (trend) ~ 2 = 214.14, all P <0.01), and the median response time (P25 ~ P75) was 0.24 (-0.02 ~ 0.52) h. 52 cases were verified as suspected cases and 40 cases were confirmed by on-site investigation. The positive rate of early warning signals was 1.08%. Among them, the fixed threshold method issued 186 warning signals involving 8 kinds of infectious diseases within 2h, 24h response rates were 97.31%, 100.00%, the median response time (P25 ~ P75) was 0.09 (0.04 ~ 0.20) h (H = 17.370, P <0.01). There were 30 confirmed cases, 2 suspicious events and 1 outbreak. The positive rate of early warning signal was 0.54%. The time model method issued 3 525 early warning signals, which involved The response rates of 13 kinds of infectious diseases within 24 hours were 93.36% and 96.99%, respectively, and the median response time (P25 ~ P75) was 0.25 (-0.03 ~ 0.54) h in 2 hours, showing shortening trend in each year (H = 746.332, P <0.01). There were 50 suspected cases and 39 outbreaks. The positive rate of early warning signals was 1.11%. Conclusion The automatic warning system for infectious diseases is stable in Baiyin City and the response rate and response timeliness of early warning signals are kept at a high level. However, the quality of direct reporting of infectious diseases needs to be further strengthened. For the establishment of the criteria for the determination of suspected events, the early warning signal specificity The improvement still needs to be further explored.