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当前我国经济发展进入新常态,经济增速从高速增长转向中高速增长,经济结构从增量扩能转向调整存量、做优增量并存的深度调整,发展方式从要素驱动、投资驱动转向创新驱动。广播电视大学在30多年的办学过程中,为数以千万计的学习者提供了低成本的优质学习资源,为经济社会发展做出了不可替代的重大贡献。面对教育领域出现的新常态,国家开放大学创新模式、探索机制,在学习型社会建设过程中发挥了举足轻重的作用。本文运用教育经济学的相关理论及计量经济学的研究方法,从理论上分析了远程教育的需求由经济发展水平和适龄人口数量决定,进而从数据上验证了国家开放大学的招生规模与国民生产总值和适龄人口数存在较高的正相关。希望本文能为学校未来的发展规划,以及招生和教学改革提供一定的决策依据。
At present, the economic development of our country has entered a new normal, the economic growth has shifted from rapid growth to medium-high-speed growth, the economic structure has shifted from incremental expansion to adjustment of stock, and a deep adjustment has been made in the co-existence of superior increment. The development mode has shifted from factor-driven and investment-driven to innovation-driven . For more than 30 years of running a school, RTVU has provided tens of millions of learners with low-cost high-quality learning resources and made irreplaceable contributions to economic and social development. Faced with the new normalcy that has emerged in the field of education, the state has opened up innovative modes and exploration mechanisms and played an important role in the construction of a learning society. This paper uses the relevant theories of educational economics and econometrics research methods to analyze the demand of distance education in theory from the level of economic development and the number of age-appropriate population, and then verify the national enrollment of open national universities and national production There is a high positive correlation between total value and school-age population. I hope this article can provide some decision-making basis for the school’s future development planning, as well as enrollment and teaching reform.