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经济转型意味着产业增长要从投资和出口的需求拉动转向内需拉动,本文根据用途的不同,将钢材区分为消费拉动型和投资拉动型两大类,梳理了投资活动和国内消费与钢铁下游产业之间的对应关系,并通过实证分析验证了消费拉动型钢材与汽车和家电产量之间存在的长期均衡关系,也验证了投资拉动型钢材与全社会建筑施工面积和主要机械设备产量之间存在的长期均衡关系。基于对钢材引致需求结构特性及其与经济转型关系的分析,本文对未来引致需求结构变动下中国钢铁产业发展趋势作出判断,并对政府产业政策和厂商策略提出建议。
Economic restructuring means that the growth of industry should shift from the demand-pull of investment and export to the pull of domestic demand. According to different purposes, the paper divides the steel into two categories: consumption-driven and investment-driven. It combs the relationship between investment activity, domestic consumption and downstream steel industry And through the empirical analysis to verify the long-term equilibrium relationship between consumption-driven steel and automobile and home appliance production, and also verifies the existence of investment-driven steel and the construction area of the whole society and the output of major machinery and equipment Long-term equilibrium relationship. Based on the analysis of the structural characteristics of steel caused demand and its relationship with economic restructuring, this paper makes a judgment on the development trend of China’s steel industry in the future caused by the changes in demand structure, and puts forward suggestions on government industrial policies and manufacturers’ strategies.