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1994年以来,我国的经济活动中出现了一个奇怪现象:一方面,企业叫喊流动资金紧张,相互拖欠有增无减,另一方面,银行出现资金过剩,即存款增加大于贷款增加。1994年存大于贷达4053亿元,1995年为3617亿元,1996年1—8月为5065亿元。这种情况还会发展下去,近几年内都不会消除。这就带来一个问题:我国目前到底是资金过剩还是资金不足?两种不同判断所导致的政策选择是不同的。我们的看法是:资金过剩,但伴有资金紧张,不是资金不足。因此,需要调整资金筹集政策,尤其是要抑制外资流入,原因如下:
Since 1994, a strange phenomenon has emerged in China’s economic activities. On the one hand, the enterprises are screaming of tight working capital and increasing defaults on the other. On the other hand, banks have excess funds, ie deposits increase more than loans. In 1994, the deposit amounted to 403.5 billion yuan, up from 361.7 billion yuan in 1995 and 506.5 billion yuan in the first eight months of 1996. This situation will continue to develop and will not be eliminated in recent years. This raises the question of whether China is currently overcapitalized or underfunded. The policy choices made by the two different judgments are different. Our view is: overcapacity, but accompanied by financial constraints, not the lack of funds. Therefore, we need to adjust the fund-raising policies, especially to curb the inflow of foreign capital for the following reasons: