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原油期货价格的上涨和波动引起了广泛关注,本文从国际原油交易定价入手,回顾“持有成本套利”和“现货溢价”两种理论在确定原油期货价格的理论和实证结论基础上,讨论了现货价格对期货定价的影响机制。目前原油期货市场的交易状况表明,原油期货价格的上涨并不是过度炒作,而是原油现货市场供求状况的真实反应。但要从深层次上揭示原油期货定价规则,应该结合资本市场和现货市场,综合考察期货市场各类交易者的行为。
The rising and fluctuation of the price of crude oil futures aroused much attention. Based on the pricing of international crude oil transaction, this paper reviews the theoretical and empirical conclusions of the two theories of “holding cost arbitrage” and “spot premium” in determining crude oil futures prices On, discussed the impact of spot price on futures pricing mechanism. The current crude oil futures market trading conditions show that the rise in crude oil futures prices is not excessive speculation, but the crude oil spot market supply and demand situation, the real response. However, to deeply reveal crude oil futures pricing rules, we should combine the capital market and spot market to comprehensively examine the behavior of all kinds of traders in the futures market.