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2000年10月,我们在“超前预警:中国经济出现滞胀幽灵”的专题报告中,提出真正的商业周期在中国首次出现,并据此对2000年中国经济进行了分析,预测2000年经济增长将进入8%以上的通道,但在此后将面临滞胀压力,2001年的经济增长速度将放缓至7.5%甚至更低而物价会明显上升。此文引发了轩然大波。究其原因,在于我们的预测太过“奇特”。经济增长速度何以忽高忽低?复苏启动后按理应一路向上,何以很快振荡向下?这一判断对于“拐点”论者完全不可想象,对于“亮点”论者同样感到蹊跷。我们的向好判断,2000年GDP 增长在8%以上,在当时是一片淡市预测中不和谐的增长赞歌;而我们的超前预警:中国2001年
In October 2000, in a special report entitled “Advance Warning: Stunning Chinese Stagflation,” we proposed that the real business cycle first appeared in China. Based on this, we analyzed the Chinese economy in 2000 and predicted the economic growth in 2000 Growth will enter more than 8% of the channel, but afterwards will face the pressure of stagflation, the economic growth in 2001 will slow to 7.5% or even lower and the price will rise significantly. This article caused an uproar. The reason is that our forecast is too “peculiar”. Why is the rate of economic growth fluctuated? The recovery should be started all the way after the start-up, why the rapid oscillation down? This judge is completely unimaginable for the “inflection point,” the same . Our good judgment is that the GDP growth in 2000 was above 8%, at the time it was a hymn of discordant growth in the forecast of weak markets; and our advance warning: China in 2001