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本文采用1978-2010年省级数据,运用动态面板模型考察了政府民生支出对东、中、西部地区城乡居民消费的影响,研究表明改革开放以来民生支出对我国居民消费具有明显的挤入作用,但其政策效应存在着的地区和城乡差异。造成这种差异的原因在于,我国的经济体制改革使得城乡居民具有明显的预防性储蓄动机,其中支出不确定性对农村居民消费支出的负向影响大于城镇居民。
Based on the provincial data from 1978 to 2010, this paper examines the impact of government spending on urban and rural residents in the eastern, central and western regions using the dynamic panel model. The research shows that since the reform and opening up, the expenditure on livelihood has a significant impact on the consumption of residents in our country. However, there are regional and urban-rural differences in its policy effects. The reason for this difference is that the reform of our country’s economic structure has made urban and rural residents have a clear preventive saving motivation, of which expenditure uncertainty has a greater negative impact on rural residents’ consumer spending than urban residents.