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根据宁夏中部干旱带盐池县、同心县和海原县气象站1961—2011年平均气温和降水量资料,分析该区域气候变化特征和规律,应用Miami和Thornthwaite Memorial模型探讨该区域春玉米生产潜力及其变化特征,并深入研究气候变化对春玉米气候生产潜力的影响。结果表明:1)研究区气候呈气温明显升高、降水波动减少的“暖干型”趋势变化。2)春玉米温度生产潜力呈逐年增加,降水和气候生产潜力呈波动中减少的趋势。3)研究区春玉米气候生产潜力平均值为5 037kg/(hm2·年),气候生产潜力与年平均降水量有着极其显著的线性相关,与年平均气温没有明显的线性相关,表明降水条件是制约研究区春玉米气候生产潜力的关键因子。未来气候变化显著影响着春玉米气候生产潜力,其中降水量变化对春玉米气候生产潜力的影响远大于气温变化的影响,降水的多少及变率对其限制作用将更明显。因此,应大力发展农业技术,合理安排农作物布局来适应气候变化,以保证春玉米产量和品质。
Based on the data of average temperature and precipitation in the meteorological stations of Yanchi County, Tongxin County and Haiyuan County from 1961 to 2011 in the central arid region of Ningxia, the characteristics and laws of climate change in this region were analyzed. The production potential of spring maize in this region was discussed using the model of Miami and Thornthwaite Memorial Change characteristics, and in-depth study of the impact of climate change on the spring maize climate productivity potential. The results showed that: 1) The climate in the study area showed a trend of “warm-dry type” with a marked increase of temperature and a decrease of precipitation fluctuation. 2) The potential productivity of spring maize increased year by year, and the potential of precipitation and climate production showed a decreasing trend. 3) The average potential productivity of spring maize in the study area is 5 037kg / (hm 2 · year). The potential of climate productivity has an extremely significant linear correlation with the annual average precipitation and has no obvious linear correlation with the annual mean temperature, indicating that the precipitation conditions are Key Factors Restricting Climate Potential of Spring Corn in Study Area. In the future, climate change will significantly affect the climate productivity potential of spring maize. The impact of precipitation on the climate potential of spring maize is much larger than that of temperature. The limiting effect of precipitation and variability will be more obvious. Therefore, agricultural technology should be vigorously developed and the layout of crops should be reasonably arranged to adapt to climate change so as to ensure the yield and quality of spring maize.