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快速城市化进程和全球气候变化加重了排水系统压力,导致城市内涝频繁发生,严重威胁社会经济发展和公众生命安全。为有效评估现有排水系统灾害损失,充分考虑各种不确定性因子对评估结果的影响,采用蒙特卡洛法随机生成致灾因子集,并基于SWMM模型计算其对应的灾害损失,结合最大熵法得到最小无偏概率估计的特征,构建灾害损失的概率密度分布函数,对安徽省合肥市某区域雨水排水系统进行灾害损失评估。结果表明,该方法可有效提高随机模拟的收敛速度,计算结果客观合理,在城市排水系统灾害损失及风险分析中具有推广应用价值。
Rapid urbanization and global climate change have exacerbated the pressure on the drainage system, leading to frequent urban waterlogging and serious threats to socio-economic development and public life safety. In order to effectively evaluate the disaster loss of existing drainage system and fully consider the impact of various uncertainties on the assessment results, Monte Carlo method is used to randomly generate hazard factors and compute the corresponding disaster losses based on the SWMM model. Combined with the maximum entropy Method to obtain the characteristics of minimum unbiased probability estimation and construct the probability density distribution function of disaster loss to evaluate the disaster loss of rainwater drainage system in a certain area of Hefei City, Anhui Province. The results show that this method can effectively improve the convergence rate of stochastic simulation and the calculation results are objective and reasonable. It has the value of popularization and application in the disaster loss and risk analysis of urban drainage system.