本文比较了德国执政和在野党各自的态势及各政党的竞选纲领，分别肯定了科尔的政治功绩和施罗德的竞选潜力，从国内政治、经济、社会背景分析了竞选前景，并简要展望了下届政府几种可能的组阁模式以及政权更迭对于德国内政外交的影响 This article compares the respective tendencies of the German ruling and opposition parties and the electoral programs of political parties, affirms Cole’s political achievements and the potential of Schroeder’s campaign respectively, analyzes the prospects of the election from the perspective of political, economic and social conditions in China, and briefly forecasts Several possible cabinet formation patterns for the next government and the impact of the regime change on Germany’s internal affairs and diplomacy