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目的探讨应用GM(1,1)模型预测孕产妇和新生儿死亡率的可行性。方法运用GM(1,1)模型对全国2004-2013年孕产妇和新生儿死亡率数据进行建模拟合,并预测2014-2016年全国孕产妇和新生儿死亡率变化趋势。结果分别建立孕产妇和新生儿死亡率GM(1,1)预测模型,孕产妇死亡率灰色GM(1,1)预测模型为:x~((1))(k+1)=-532.133e~(-0.090k)+580.433,(C_1=0.112,P_1=1.000);新生儿死亡率灰色GM(1,1)预测模型为:x~((1))(k+1)=-150.831e~(-0.091k)+166.231,(C_2=0.047,P_2=1.000)。上述两种模型拟合精度高,均可进行外推预测。通过模型预测2014-2016年全国孕产妇死亡率分别为20.3/10万、18.6/10万、17.0/10万,全国新生儿死亡率分别为5.8‰、5.3‰、4.8‰。结论 GM(1,1)模型在孕产妇和新生儿死亡率时间序列上的变化趋势上得到较好应用,并可进行预测。通过预测可知,2014-2016年全国孕产妇和新生儿死亡率将会继续减少。
Objective To explore the feasibility of using GM (1,1) model to predict maternal and newborn mortality. Methods The GM (1,1) model was used to simulate the data of maternal and newborn mortality from 2004 to 2013 in China and predict the trend of maternal and newborn mortality in China from 2014 to 2016. Results The GM (1,1) predictive model for maternal and neonatal mortality was established. The gray GM (1,1) predictive model for maternal mortality was: x ~ (1) (k + 1) = - 532.133e ~ (-0.090k) +580.433, (C_1 = 0.112, P_1 = 1.000). The gray GM (1,1) prediction model of neonatal mortality is: x ~ (1) (k +1) = -150.831e ~ (-0.091k) +166.231, (C_2 = 0.047, P_2 = 1.000). The above two models have high fitting accuracy and can be extrapolated. The model predicts that the national maternal mortality rates will be 20.3 / 100,000, 18.6 / 100,000 and 17.0 / 100,000 respectively from 2014 to 2016. The national newborn mortality rates are 5.8 ‰, 5.3 ‰ and 4.8 ‰, respectively. Conclusion GM (1,1) model is better applied in the time series of maternal and newborn mortality and can be predicted. The forecast shows that the national maternal and newborn mortality rate will continue to decrease in 2014-2016.