本文借助美国学者部分研究成果,说明和分析了埃米尔·胡尔亚在政治民调演进史上的开拓性贡献。胡尔亚在对大量民调数据和原始资料进行鉴别、修正和分析的基础上,于1932年首次将民意调查用来跟踪选民情绪,确定民主党所要采取的运动策略,总统竞选破天荒地第一次在日益成型的民意测验指导下进行,富兰克林·罗斯福也成为把民意测验运用于竞选运动的第一位总统候选人。 Based on the research results of American scholars, this article illustrates and analyzes Emil Hurray’s pioneering contributions in the evolution of political polls. Based on the identification, revision and analysis of a large number of polls and sources, Julia used the opinion polls for the first time in 1932 to track voter sentiment and determine the campaign strategy to be adopted by the Democrats. For the first time in the presidential election Under the direction of a growing public opinion poll, Franklin Roosevelt became the first presidential candidate to apply opinion polls to the campaign.