沪市轻松跨过4000点,越来越多的人提醒:中国股民正在进行刀尖上的惊魂之舞。但穿上红舞鞋的人,已经身不由己。中国股市会向何处去?“涨”——就一个字,起因仍然是泛滥的货币流动性。继央行4月末宣布上调金融机构存款准备金率至11%之后,近日央行再次发出通知,金融机构外汇存款准备金率于5月15日起由原来的4%上调至5%,增加1%的外汇存款准备金,直接冻结16.49亿美元资金,约合127亿元人民币,相当于3月同比多增外汇的一半。毫无疑问,此举是为了减少流动性,不过,用这一政策吸纳千亿元资金,就像拿块抹布吸干河水一样困难。原因很简单,美元与人民币仍在源源不断地涌入市场。美元弱势已成,即使近日公布的批发销售数据创2005年9月以来的新高,也无法挽救美元的疲软之势,美元也无升息可能。为了防止人民币升值过快,以及保持中国产品的出口优势,人民币利率只能追随美元脚步,同步放大流动性,这个大趋势短期内不可能改变。 Shanghai easily crossed 4,000 points, more and more people are reminded: Chinese investors are doing the knife on the soul of the dance. But people wearing red shoes, already involuntarily. Where will the Chinese stock market go? “Up ” - one word, the cause is still the proliferation of monetary liquidity. Following the announcement by the central bank in late April to raise the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions to 11%, the central bank recently issued a circular again, raising the deposit reserve ratio of foreign exchange reserves of financial institutions from 5% to 4% from May 15, up 1% The reserve for foreign exchange deposits directly froze 1.649 billion U.S. dollars, equivalent to about 12.7 billion yuan, equivalent to more than half of the increase in foreign exchange in March. Undoubtedly, the move is aimed at reducing liquidity. However, using this policy to absorb hundreds of billions of yuan of funds is just as difficult as taking a rag to dry up rivers. The reason is very simple, the dollar and yuan are still pouring into the market. US dollar has become a weakness, even if the recent wholesale sales data hit a record high since September 2005, it can not save the weakness of the dollar, the dollar is also no interest rate increase may be. In order to prevent excessive appreciation of the renminbi and to maintain the export advantages of Chinese products, the RMB interest rate can only follow the pace of the U.S. dollar and simultaneously increase the liquidity. This trend can not be changed in the short term.