一阶有效度组合预测模型只考虑了精度的均值,而事实上在进行预测时,还要考虑预测精度的方差对预测方法有效性的影响。针对简单的单目标有效度模型在沉降变形预测应用中的不足,文章提出采用基于均值和方差的多目标有效性的二阶有效度组合预测模型方法,对建筑物沉降变形进行预测研究,计算实例表明,该模型预测精度高,简单实用,能够有效应用于建筑物沉降变形的预测。 The first-order validity of the combined forecasting model considers only the mean of the accuracy, but in fact, when forecasting, but also consider the prediction accuracy of the variance on the effectiveness of the forecasting method. Aiming at the shortcomings of the simple single-objective validity model in the application of settlement deformation prediction, this paper proposes a prediction model of the settlement of buildings using the second-order effectiveness combined forecasting model based on the mean and variance of multi-objective effectiveness. The calculation example It shows that the model has high prediction accuracy and is simple and practical. It can be effectively applied to the prediction of settlement deformation of buildings.