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该文以中国和美国等世界主要经济体的GDP变量组成全球宏观经济的协整系统,基于长期协整关系分解中国和美国等世界主要经济体的长期增长趋势与短期周期波动,再进一步运用因子模型提取世界经济周期因子。协整检验的结果表明,中国与美国等世界主要经济体具有长期的共同增长趋势,而提取的世界经济周期因子可以解释中国经济周期波动的53%,说明世界经济增长具有很强的长期和短期协同关系。现阶段中国和美国等世界主要经济体的长期趋势增长率出现了明显的下滑,其中2012年至2015年中国年均潜在经济增长率下降为7.16%。为应对金融危机,中国与世界主要经济体出台了大规模的经济刺激政策,促进了短期需求并形成周期成分,但并没有逆转随机趋势的长期下行。由此说明加强有效的供给侧改革,增强经济潜在增长率,应该是中国与世界主要经济体宏观调控的新常态。
Based on the long-term co-integration relationship, this paper decomposes the long-term growth trend and short-term cyclical fluctuations in the world’s major economies such as China and the United States and makes further use of factors Model extracts world economic cycle factor. The results of the co-integration test show that the world’s major economies such as China and the United States have a long-term trend of common growth. The extracted world economic cycle factor can explain 53% of China’s economic cyclical fluctuations, indicating that the world economic growth has strong long-term and short-term Synergies. At this stage, the long-term trend growth rates of the world’s major economies such as China and the United States have shown a marked decline. Among them, from 2012 to 2015, the average annual growth rate of potential economic growth in China dropped to 7.16%. In response to the financial crisis, China and major economies in the world introduced large-scale economic stimulus policies to promote short-term demand and form periodic components, but did not reverse the long-term downward trend of stochastic trends. This shows that strengthening the effective supply-side reform and enhancing the potential economic growth rate should be the new normal for the macro-control of China and major economies in the world.