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2016年,我国居民消费价格指数(CPI)同比涨幅呈“前高中低后升”的运行特征,消费领域价格涨幅总体温和,工业生产者价格指数(PPI)同比由负转正,生产领域通缩压力逐步缓和,预计2016年CPI上涨2.0%,PPI下降1.7%。展望2017年,宽松的金融货币环境、人力成本趋势性上升、翘尾因素升高、猪肉价格走势存在不确定性等因素将支撑价格上涨,总需求稳中趋缓、农业领域粮食产量和库存双高、以房地产为代表的资产价格稳中有降、通胀预期偏弱等因素将抑制物价涨幅。综合考虑诸上因素的影响,预计2017年CPI上涨1.8%,PPI上涨1.0%。因此,本文建议实施灵活稳健的货币政策、做好农业生产保障主要农产品供给稳定、多措并举扩大去产能范围、稳步推进能源资源和服务等领域价格改革、因城施策稳定房地产市场价格和预期,助推供给侧结构性改革。
In 2016, the year-on-year increase in consumer price index (CPI) of our country was followed by the performance of “high school, low middle school and low post gradual rise.” The price increase in the consumer sector was generally moderate. The price index of industrial producers (PPI) turned negative from the same period of last year, while the production area deflated Pressure gradually eased, CPI is expected in 2016 rose 2.0%, PPI fell 1.7%. Looking forward to 2017, easing financial and monetary conditions, rising trend of labor costs, rising hikes and uncertainties in the price of pork will support the price rise and the steady decline in aggregate demand. Grain output and inventory in the agricultural sector will double High, real estate as the representative of asset prices steady drop, weak inflation expectations and other factors will curb price increases. Taking into account the factors above, CPI is expected to rise 1.8% in 2017 and PPI up 1.0%. Therefore, this paper suggests to implement a flexible and stable monetary policy, do a good job in agricultural production to ensure the stability of the supply of major agricultural products, take measures to simultaneously expand the scope of production capacity, and steadily promote price reform in areas such as energy, resources and services, stabilizing the real estate market prices and expectations, Boost supply-side structural reforms.