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本文运用面板数据模型,基于面板协整理论,通过完全修正最小二乘法(FMOLS),使用30个省(市、区)11年的面板数据对增值税、消费税和营业税三项流转税与CPI之间的影响关系进行了研究。结论显示:增值税、消费税和营业税对CPI的弹性分别是0.2715、0.2098和0.4460,且由于税收增长幅度较大,流转税对于CPI的影响有扩大趋势。因此本文建议通过构建以直接税为主体的税制体系、深化增值税扩围改革和结构性减税来稳定物价,保持CPI指数稳定。
In this paper, panel data model is used to analyze the three turnover tax of VAT, consumption tax and business tax through CPLD with fully revised least squares (FMOLS) and panel data of 30 provinces (cities, districts) The relationship between the impact of the study. The conclusion shows that the elasticity of CPI to VAT, consumption tax and sales tax are 0.2715, 0.2098 and 0.4460, respectively. Due to the large increase in tax revenue, the impact of turnover tax on CPI has been expanding. Therefore, this article proposes to stabilize the price by maintaining a stable CPI index by building a tax system mainly based on direct taxes, deepening the VAT reform and structural tax cuts.