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目的对媒体重点报道的湖北应城市的恶性肿瘤死亡率水平和变化趋势开展分析,以进一步验证媒体报道信息的真实性和可靠性。方法利用1973-1975年全国第一次死因回顾调查数据,以及2004-2005年全国第三次死因回顾抽样调查数据,描述湖北省应城市恶性肿瘤死亡率及变化趋势。结果湖北省应城市恶性肿瘤粗死亡率为148.26/10万,过去30多年来,该地恶性肿瘤死亡率大幅度上升,上升幅度是全国的9.27倍,该县每10万人中,平均每年比全国水平多死43例恶性肿瘤患者。该地多种恶性肿瘤变化幅度明显异于全国,食管癌、胃癌不降反升;肝癌、肺癌、白血病、结直肠癌的上升幅度分别是全国的5.84倍、5.61倍、5.07倍、17.91倍,胃癌、肝癌、肺癌、结直肠癌的超额死亡率分别为15.32/10万、16.78/10万、8.32/10万及3.98/10万。负二项分布拟合结果提示胃癌的死亡存在村落聚集性。结论湖北省应城市历史恶性肿瘤死亡率水平低,但上升幅度大,处于全国高发水平,呈现多种恶性肿瘤普遍高发现象,胃癌死亡存在村落聚集性。
Objective To analyze the level and trend of malignant tumor mortality in Hubei Yingcheng, which is reported by the media, so as to further verify the authenticity and reliability of the media reported information. Methods The data of the first retrospective investigation of the cause of death from 1973 to 1975 and the data of the third retrospective sample of death from 2004 to 2005 were used to describe the malignant tumor mortality and its changing trend in Yingcheng, Hubei Province. Results The crude death rate of malignant tumors in Yingcheng City of Hubei Province was 148.26 / 100000. In the past 30 years, the death rate of malignant tumors in this area has risen sharply, which is 9.27 times that of the whole country. The average annual rate per 100,000 population in this county The national level more dead 43 cases of malignant tumor patients. The range of the variety of malignant tumors in this area was significantly different from that of the whole country. Esophageal cancer and gastric cancer did not fall and rise. The increases of liver cancer, lung cancer, leukemia and colorectal cancer were 5.84 times, 5.61 times, 5.07 times and 17.91 times respectively, The excess mortality rates of gastric cancer, liver cancer, lung cancer and colorectal cancer were 15.32 / 100000, 16.78 / 100000, 8.32 / 100000 and 3.98 / 100000 respectively. The negative binomial distribution fitting results suggest that there is village aggregation in the death of gastric cancer. Conclusions The mortality rate of malignant tumors in Yingcheng City, Hubei Province, is low, but the rate of increase is large. It is at a high level in the whole country, showing the high prevalence of various malignant tumors and the presence of village agglomeration in the death of gastric cancer.