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2010年以来,我国对外贸易呈现强劲恢复性增长态势。进口和出口形势的戏剧性逆转带来贸易顺差规模加速向2009年靠拢。1～4月,进口恢复快于出口,两者保持了大致平衡,月度顺差规模均在100亿美元之下,3月甚至出现了72亿美元的贸易逆差。但从5月开始,情况开始变化:出口恢复的势头超出预期,欧洲主权债务危机对出口的拖累尚未显现;而进口方面,则因刺激政策的退出,固定资产投资增速明显回落,使大宗商品的进口需求下降。5～7月的月度顺差规模分别为195.3亿美元、200亿美元和287亿美元。今年1～8月,中国顺差规模累计已经达到1039.6亿美元。今年后几个月,这种贸易顺差大幅增长的趋势是否还会持续下去?全球经济复苏进程的放缓和国内宏观调控政策的延续会给中国的外贸进出口形势带来什么影响?为此,本刊邀请了沈明高、张燕生和裴长洪共叙此话题。
Since 2010, China’s foreign trade has shown a strong and resilient growth. The dramatic reversal of the import and export situation brought the scale of trade surplus accelerated toward 2009. From January to April, imports recovered faster than exports, and both remained broadly balanced with monthly surpluses below $ 10 billion. In March, there was even a trade deficit of $ 7.2 billion. However, the situation started to change from May: the recovery in exports was more than expected. The drag on the European sovereign debt crisis has not yet appeared on the export side. On the import side, due to the withdrawal of stimulus policies, the growth rate of fixed asset investment dropped significantly, The import demand is declining. May-July monthly surplus scale were 19.53 billion US dollars, 20 billion US dollars and 28.7 billion US dollars. From January to August this year, the cumulative surplus in China has reached 103.96 billion U.S. dollars. In the months to come such a trend will this trend of substantial trade surplus continue? The slowdown in the global economic recovery and the continuation of domestic macro-control policies will have an impact on China’s foreign trade import and export situation? To this end, The magazine invited Shen Ming Gao, Zhang Yansheng and Pei Changhong to discuss this topic.