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通过对民用航空发动机性能退化数据的分析,提出了一种有效融合先验退化数据和现场退化数据的性能可靠性评估和剩余寿命预测方法.首先在先验退化数据的基础上确定Wiener过程参数的先验分布,然后利用贝叶斯方法融合新增的现场数据,对Wiener过程参数进行更新,并在此基础上对单台发动机进行性能可靠性评估和剩余寿命预测.该方法能根据现场退化数据不断地对可靠性和剩余寿命进行更新.最后通过某航空公司发动机性能退化数据验证文中提出的方法,结果表明41号发动机在2 000循环和3 000循环时预测的剩余寿命相对误差分别为0.060和0.018,可以满足航空公司发动机下发计划制定的实际需要.
Based on the analysis of the degradation data of civil aviation engines, a method to evaluate the performance reliability and the remaining life of the degraded data is proposed.Firstly, based on the a priori degenerated data, the Wiener process parameters Then, the Wiener process parameters are updated by using the Bayesian method to integrate the new field data, and on this basis, the performance reliability assessment and remaining life prediction of a single engine are carried out.According to the field degradation data The reliability and remaining life are continuously updated.Finally, the method proposed in the paper is validated by engine performance degradation data of some airlines. The results show that the relative error of remaining life predicted by 41 engine at 2000 cycles and 3000 cycles are 0.060 and 0.018, to meet the actual needs of the airline engine planning issued.