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本文通过四川省疾病监测点300多万人口的调查资料,采用复利(公左)教学模型,对今后城、乡十五年人口老化进行了预测。结果表明,1990年城市老年系数为7.99％,巳跨入老年人口型比农村提前十年进入老龄化。到2000年,总人口比1985年增加9.27％,城、乡分别增加7.40％、10.01％,老年系数分别达11.88％和8.01％,无论城市、农村进入老龄化社会,且男性多于女性,性比值为100∶92。从而提示今后应加强老年保健工作,预防老年期疾病发生,积极开展包括老年前期现内的老年医学研究,以降低死亡,提高期望寿命。
Based on the survey data of more than 3 million people in the disease surveillance sites in Sichuan Province, this article uses the compound interest (public left) teaching model to predict the population aging in the urban and rural areas over the past 15 years. The results show that in 1990 the urban old age coefficient is 7.99%, which has entered the aging population ten years earlier than the rural population. By the year 2000, the total population has increased by 9.27% over 1985, while urban and rural areas have increased by 7.40% and 10.01% respectively. The elderly population has reached 11.88% and 8.01% respectively. No matter the urban and rural areas are entering an aging society and there are more males and females The ratio is 100: 92. Therefore, it is suggested that elderly health care work should be strengthened in the future to prevent the occurrence of diseases in old age. Active research on gerontology, including the current pre-senile period, should be conducted to reduce death and improve life expectancy.