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预测虽然时有失败,却从未被人们放弃,它是人性中根深蒂固的东西。我们对于自己所处世界的事件进程预见得越多,就越有能力为应对这些事件做好准备,从而改善生活品质。2008年9月的危机却没有人预见到,宏观经济模型在我们最需要它的时候遭遇了彻底失败,这令经济学界大为沮丧。哪里出了问题?我的思考从对“动物精神”的分析开始,这个知名术语是凯恩斯发明的,凯恩斯讨论的动物精神是从事经济活动的驱动力,我们的讨论对此概念有所扩展,把恐惧导致的风险规避的一面
Prediction, though always unsuccessful, has never been abandoned by people. It is something deeply rooted in human nature. The more we anticipate the course of the events in our own world, the more able we are to prepare for these events and thereby improve the quality of life. No one foreseen the crisis of September 2008, when the macroeconomic model suffered a complete failure when we needed it most, which greatly frustrated economists. Where is the problem? My thinking begins with the analysis of Animal Spirit, a well-known term invented by Keynes and the animal spirit discussed by Keynes is the driving force behind economic activity. Our discussion extends this notion , The risk-averse side of fear