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用水数据是开启水资源规划与管理的钥匙,是中国落实最严格水资源管理制度的基础。本文基于1997-2011年中国水资源公报和全国第一次水利普查公开发布的用水数据综合运用对比分析、德尔菲专家调查及趋势离差等方法,从主观和客观两个方面定性地分析了两套权威用水数据的差异及其原因,并对不同行业的用水数据进行了取舍和修正,以期客观地判断中国真实用水情况。研究表明中国用水统计数据的差异是客观存在的。不同地区不同行业之间的数据差别各异,主要原因包括用水计量基础薄弱、计量率较低和地方行政部门为了争取相当于水权的用水指标而主观影响用水数据的上报等因素。修正后的中国2011年总用水量约为5 904.6亿m3,其中生活用水约为846.1亿m3,工业用水约为1 203.0亿m3,农业用水约为3 743.6亿m3,生态环境用水111.9亿m3。
Water use data is the key to opening water resources planning and management and is the basis for China to implement the most stringent water resources management system. Based on the comparative analysis of the comprehensive utilization of water data released by China Water Resources Bulletin 1997-1991 and the first national water census, the survey of Delphi experts and the trend dispersion, the paper qualitatively analyzed two aspects, subjective and objective Sets of authoritative water data differences and their causes, and water use data for different industries were selected and amended, with a view to objectively determine the actual use of water in China. Research shows that the differences in water use statistics in China are objective. Differences in data between different industries in different regions are mainly due to factors such as weak water measurement basis, low measurement rate, and reports of subjective impact on water use data by local administrative authorities in order to obtain the equivalent of water rights. The revised total water consumption of China in 2011 was about 594.8 billion m3, of which about 84.61 billion m3 of domestic water, 122.3 billion m3 of industrial water, 374.36 billion m3 of agricultural water and 11.19 billion m3 of ecological water.