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2008年4季度中国经济继续快速下滑,经济的滑坡主要来自于重工业的失速,并与企业存货的剧烈调整关系密切,伴随经济的急剧下降,通货膨胀水平迅速回落,生产资料价格水平已经进入负增长,预计未来将继续下降,并在2009年全年都维持在负区间。然而,更加值得注意的事实是,最近一系列经济数据的回暖预示着我国经济正逐步走向复苏。近期证券市场走势强劲的原因就在于流动性复苏和经济基本面回暖。流动性改善提高了证券市场的估值水平,另外也预示着企业经营压力的减缓。同时,PMI指数、发电量、工业增加值等宏观经济指标纷纷反弹,提振证券市场信心。
In the fourth quarter of 2008, China’s economy continued its rapid decline. The economic downturn mainly came from the stalling of heavy industry. It was closely linked with the drastic readjustment of the stock of enterprises. With rapid economic decline, the inflation rate dropped rapidly and the price level of the means of production went into negative growth. It is expected that the future will continue to decline, and will remain in negative territory throughout 2009. However, more noteworthy fact is that the recent warming of a series of economic data indicates that our economy is gradually recovering. The recent strong stock market is due to the liquidity recovery and economic fundamentals pick up. Improved liquidity has raised the valuation of the stock market, in addition to heralding the slowdown of corporate operating pressures. At the same time, macroeconomic indicators such as the PMI index, power generation and industrial added value rebounded one after another, boosting confidence in the securities market.