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中国财政政策与通货膨胀的关系符合FTPL的结论,财政政策通过影响货币供给、社会总需求以及要素成本对价格水平产生作用。通过对1998年以来中国积极财政政策与通货膨胀变动情况的实证分析,发现通货膨胀对财政支出的变动有较强的反应:通货膨胀率在受到财政支出一个单位正向冲击后,在约1个月的时期内冲击效应为正,通货膨胀率提高约0.03;但影响时间很短,在滞后3期(9个月)的时期内冲击效应转为负向,通货膨胀率下降;3至5.5期(9个月至13.5个月)时期内效应再次转为正向,通货膨胀率上升。这与财政支出对公众预期具有导向性、财政支出的刚性以及财政政策自身执行的滞后性紧密相关。
The relationship between fiscal policy and inflation in China conforms to the conclusion of FTPL that fiscal policy has an effect on the price level by affecting the money supply, aggregate social demand and factor costs. Through the empirical analysis of the positive fiscal policy and inflation in China since 1998, we find that inflation has a strong response to the change of fiscal expenditure: After inflationary rate is positively affected by a unit of fiscal expenditure, about 1 The impact was positive during the month and the inflation rate increased by about 0.03. However, the impact time was very short. During the lag period of 3 months (9 months), the impact turned negative and the inflation rate dropped. In the period from 3 to 5.5 (9 months to 13.5 months) period, the effect turned positive again and the inflation rate increased. This is closely related to the expectation of public expenditure, the rigidity of fiscal expenditure and the lag of fiscal policy itself.