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目的研究电焊烟尘致电焊工尘肺的风险分析方法,预测风险概率,为实施风险管理提供技术依据。方法选取某大型农用机械加工电焊车间作为研究对象。采用Logistic回归模型的非线性回归分析,通过接尘浓度、工龄预测电焊工尘肺发病概率;采用计算机R语言进行接尘工龄、浓度与发病概率之间关系的风险分析;采用Logistic回归模型-蒙特卡洛模拟方法分析职业暴露与电焊工尘肺发病概率的分布规律。结果依目前电焊烟浓度,电焊工暴露5年和10年、20年和30年发生尘肺的风险值分别为10-3~10-2、10-2~10-1。按职业生涯30年工龄计,发生电焊工尘肺的风险高于可接受风险水平,需要采取措施降低风险。结论本研究建立的电焊工尘肺定量风险评价方法,以接尘工龄、烟尘暴露浓度与电焊工尘肺的风险概率作为风险目标,实用性强,易于在职业病危害评价中实际应用,为电焊工尘肺的预防控制提供了理论依据。
Objective To study the risk analysis method of welder dust and pneumoconiosis caused by welding fume and dust, predict the risk probability and provide technical basis for the implementation of risk management. Methods Select a large-scale agricultural machinery processing workshop as the research object. Non-linear regression analysis of Logistic regression model was used to predict the incidence of welder pneumoconiosis by the concentration of dust and length of service. Risk analysis of the relationship between the length of service and the incidence of dust was conducted by using computer R language. Logistic regression model- Luo simulation method to analyze the distribution of occupational exposure and probability of incidence of pneumoconiosis in welders. Results According to the current concentration of welding fumes, the risk of pneumoconiosis occurred at 5 years, 10 years, 20 years and 30 years of welders were 10-3 ~ 10-2 and 10-2 ~ 10-1, respectively. At 30-year working age, the risk of welder pneumoconiosis above the acceptable level of risk requires steps to be taken to reduce the risk. Conclusion The quantitative risk assessment method of welder’s pneumoconiosis established in this study takes the risk of dust exposure, dust exposure and risk of welder’s pneumoconiosis as the risk target. It is practical and easy to be applied in the evaluation of occupational hazards, Prevention and control provides a theoretical basis.