中国经济正在经历转型,当下正面临两个确定和两个不确定,即确定的“下行”但不确定的“底”和确定的“转型”但不确定的“有效路径”。在这种情况下,监管层和投资者一样需要确定中周期的“底部”以及“转型的有效路径”。显然政府不希望经济惯性下行,试图调控以“测底”。正是逆周期政策效应,外加出口和消费的及时企稳,需求好转,企业有效去库存。目前,库存、 China’s economy is experiencing a transition. Currently, it is facing two determinations and two uncertainties, namely, determining the “bottom line” but not sure “bottom” and the definite “transitional” but “indefinite” effective path“. In this case, regulators and investors need to determine the ”bottom“ of the cycle and the ”effective path to transition". Obviously, the government does not want the economic inertia to go down and tries to regulate and control it. It is the countercyclical policy effect, coupled with the timely stabilization of exports and consumption, the improvement of demand and the effective stock removal by enterprises. At present, stocks,