香港进入后过渡期能否保持稳定和繁荣,已经成为国内外舆论关注的热门话题。国内学术界对此也持有较为乐观、较为谨慎或较为悲观的不同看法。由于香港回归关系全局,我们宁可把问题看得困难些、复杂些,多设想一些对策措施,才能避免出现重大失误。笔者在这里仅对香港的经济走势及其对上海的影响,谈几点看法。 香港经济在今后三年中可能继续向衰退方向滑坡。有关专家预测香港的经济增长率在1996年降至5％以下,1997年在3％左右,1998年达到谷底。临近97大限香港企业倒闭数量增 Whether Hong Kong will maintain its stability and prosperity in the post-transition period has become a hot topic of public opinion at home and abroad. Domestic academics also hold more optimistic, more cautious or more pessimistic views. Due to the overall return of Hong Kong to the Mainland, we would rather see the problems more difficult, more complex and think more about some countermeasures so as to avoid major mistakes. Here I only talk about Hong Kong’s economic trends and its impact on Shanghai. Hong Kong’s economy may continue to slide toward recession in the next three years. Experts predict that the economic growth rate of Hong Kong will drop below 5% in 1996 and around 3% in 1997 and reach a bottom in 1998. The number of business failures in Hong Kong has increased by nearly 97 cents