本文在介绍Merton模型基础上,指出传统期权法度量违约概率模型的缺陷,进而结合我国实际,把违约看成是分别由以现金流为标的、债务为行使价和以违约成本为标的、违约收益为行使价的两份期权,提出从偿还能力和偿还意愿两个方面度量违约概率的模型。 Based on the introduction of Merton model, this paper points out the shortcomings of the traditional option method to measure the probability of default, and then considers the default as the subject of cash flow, the debt as exercise price and the default cost as the basis, As the two options of the exercise price, a model is proposed to measure the probability of default from two aspects: solvency and repayment intention.