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本文在构建多部门经济模型的基础上,利用1992~2009年数据测度产业结构变迁对“金砖四国”经济增长的贡献。结果表明:产业结构变动对新兴大国经济增长的贡献比较大,在不同时期产业结构变动对经济增长的贡献不同,每个国家都表现出显著的周期性;自2005年以来,各国产业结构变迁对经济增长的贡献在逐渐下降,经济增长的稳定性越来越强。并且发现,科技进步是产业结构优化的关键因素,新兴大国必须着眼于产业内部结构的优化,瞄准全球价值链的高端参与国际经济分工,推动科技进步和自主创新,培育和发展新兴战略产业,努力实现经济转型。
Based on the construction of a multi-sectoral economic model, this paper uses the data from 1992 to 2009 to measure the contribution of industrial structure changes to the economic growth of the BRIC countries. The results show that: the change of industrial structure contributes greatly to the economic growth of the emerging powers; the contribution of the industrial structure change to the economic growth varies in different periods, and each country shows a remarkable periodicity; since 2005, the industrial structure changes in various countries The contribution of economic growth is gradually declining, and the stability of economic growth is getting stronger and stronger. And found that technological progress is the key factor in the optimization of industrial structure. Emerging powers must focus on the optimization of the internal structure of the industry, aiming at high-end global value chain participation in the international division of labor, promoting scientific and technological progress and independent innovation, nurturing and developing emerging strategic industries, and making efforts Economic restructuring.