气候变暖背景下豫北地区冬小麦和夏玉米光热资源利用效率研究

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IPCC第4次报告指出全球地表温度在过去的100年间上升了0.74℃,而同期中国平均升温为0.5~0.8℃,略高于全球平均水平.农业生产与气候资源条件息息相关,气候变化对农业生产的影响显著,对农业生产中的粮食生产有直接影响,其原因在于,农作物的生长发育都依赖于一定的气候条件,农作物产量除受经济技术、品种等因素影响外,一个重要的条件就是温度和日照等气象要素,它既为作物提供物质和能量基础,又是农业技术有效实施的一个重要限制因素.本研究选用豫北地区沁阳市农业气象观测站长时间尺度冬小麦和夏玉米观测资料以及气象资料,阐明该地区近30年来冬小麦和夏玉米主要物候期、全生育期光热资源及其利用效率的变化特征,分析和探讨粮食生产的光热资源利用效率的状况和规律,对该地区提高农业气候资源利用效率和粮食产量以及适应未来气候变暖具有重要指导意义。 近30年来,豫北地区冬小麦播种期的变化趋势不明显,而成熟期明显提前,全生育期天数显著减少;夏玉米播种期呈明显提前,而成熟期的变化趋势不显著,全生育期天数显著增加。1983-2007年,豫北地区气温变暖的趋势明显;冬小麦全生育期平均气温明显增加,而夏玉米全生育期平均气温的变化趋势不明显;冬小麦和夏玉米全生育期有效积温均呈明显增加;冬小麦全生育期内的太阳总辐射显著减少,而夏玉米全生育期内的太阳总辐射变化趋势并不明显。1983-2007年,豫北地区冬小麦平均光热资源利用效率分别为0.40%和3.5kg/(℃·d·hm2),夏玉米分别为0.70%和4.Okg/(℃·d·hm2);冬小麦和夏玉米光热利用效率均呈现明显增加的趋势。
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高温天气对人民群众的日常生活和各行业都有影响.高温天气轻则影响人们的工作效率,用水、用电量剧增,造成供电线路因不堪重负而跳闸断电、自来水供应量不足等,影响人民正常生产、生活,重则造成人畜中暑死亡和引发多种疾病,农作物减产.郭艳玲等对开封高温和闷热天气的气候特征进行分析;贺哲对河南省高温偏多和偏少年环流特征及其与OLR关系进行了分析,得出前期一些月份的OLR分布对河南省夏季的高温具有指示意义;贺哲,