PRESENT AND FUTURE DISTRIBUTION OF CRYPTIC SPECIES OF VLEI RATS (O.AURATUS, O.IRRORATUS S.S AND O.AN

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  Climate change is predicted to have profound impacts on the distribution of numerous species,particularly those species that have very low dispersal capacity and short life spans,and range-restricted species occupying narrow habitats.This study investigated current and potential future distribution of three cryptic species of Afromontane rodents (Otomys auratus,O.angoniensis and O.irroratus s.s) .Each of the three species is associated with a particular Biome i.e.O.irroratus s.s is associated mostly with Fynbos and Thicket Biomes,O.auratus with Grassland Biome and O.angoniensis with Savannah Biome and we predict that their distribution will follow those predicted for their respective Biomes.Distributional data were obtained from: field trapping,owl pellet analysis and Museum records [former Transvaal Museum and Durban Natural Science Museum].Maxent was used to model the current distribution of all three species and a general circulation model was used to predict the distribution of these species in 2070.Niche models were found to follow biome boundaries of each species.This scenario predicted a south east shift (auratus) ,a south west shift (angoniensis) and a shrink (irroratus s.s) in future distribution,according to each species preferred habitat.A concomitant 66% (auratus) and 36% (irroratus s.s) reduction in areas of high environmental suitability of these species is shown,with a 1%gain in angoniensis.High rainfall and low temperatures modulated the distribution of both auratus and irroratus s.s while high rainfall and high temperatures modulated angoniensis.And this was consistent with the ecological requirements of each species.
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