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金融危机后积极财政政策和宽松货币政策的实施,重新引起了人们对中国财政可持续性的担忧以及对目前政府融资策略的反思。本文采用1978～2009年样本数据运用协整检验方法评估了不同情况下中国财政可持续性以及政府融资策略。同以前的研究相比,本文的不同之处在于如下三个方面:第一,考虑了财政体制改革给中国财政收入结构带来的变化,将非税收入从财政收入中剥离,评估了非税收入对中国财政可持续性的影响。第二,考虑了货币发行给政府收入带来的变化,将央行由于货币发行而产生的铸币税也看做政府收入的一部分,评估了政府获得的财政铸币税对中国财政可持续性的影响。第三,利用已有的扩展收入平滑模型运用最新数据考察了中国政府的融资策略是否最优。实证结果表明,仅仅依靠税收收入不足以保证中国财政可持续性,考虑非税收入后中国财政呈弱可持续性,进一步考虑铸币税收入后中国财政呈强可持续性;尽管中国传统税率的选择路径不是最优的,但是,中国政府在利用不同手段筹集收入的同时权衡了不同收入方式的无谓损失,宏观税率和通货膨胀率的选择路径是最优的。这一研究结论对于后危机时代如何改善中国财政可持续性具有重要意义。
The implementation of the proactive fiscal policy and the loose monetary policy after the financial crisis have rekindled people’s concern about the financial sustainability of China and the reflection on the current government financing strategy. In this paper, we use the sample data from 1978 to 2009 cointegration test to assess China’s financial sustainability and government financing strategies in different situations. Compared with the previous studies, the differences of this paper lie in the following three aspects: First, taking into account the changes brought about by China’s fiscal revenue structure through the reform of the financial system, the non-tax revenue was diverted from the fiscal revenue and the non-tax revenue was assessed The Impact of Income on the Financial Sustainability in China. Second, taking into account the changes brought by the currency issuance to the government revenue, we consider the central bank’s seigniorage due to currency issuance as part of government revenue and assess the impact of government seigniorage on China’s fiscal sustainability. Third, we use the latest extended income smoothing model to examine whether the Chinese government’s financing strategy is optimal. The empirical results show that China’s fiscal sustainability is strong only after relying on tax revenue due to insufficient tax revenue to ensure China’s fiscal sustainability and weak financial sustainability after considering non-tax revenue. Although the choice of China’s traditional tax rate The path is not optimal. However, the Chinese government weighs up the unnecessary loss of different incomes while using different means to raise revenue. The choice path of macro tax rates and inflation rates is optimal. This research conclusion is of great significance to the improvement of China’s financial sustainability in the post-crisis era.