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地震灾害损失估计方法一般是通过对地震活动性与地震断层参数,地震地面运动,结构的易损性三个方面的估计,然后结合建筑物的特性来系统地集成地震灾害损失的估计。本文基于这样的一个集成系统,分别从地震活动性,地震地面运动,结构易损性和提高采样精度四个方面围绕着如何提高地震灾害损失估计精度开展了相关研究。对地震活动性的研究主要集中于日本2011年海啸地震之后的地震活动性的改变和考虑地震发生时间影响对美国西北太平洋地区的地震活动性的改变。地震地面运动的研究主要是利用日本2011年海啸地震在1000多个地点观测到的地震动记录修正地震地面运动的估计方法。结构易损性的研究是利用日本2011年海啸地震收集到的超50万个损失样本,详细修正结构易损性的估算方法。最后,利用重点采样法提高传统的利用蒙特卡洛方法用于模拟地震发生概率的采样精度。
Earthquake disaster loss estimation method is generally based on seismic activity and seismic fault parameters, seismic ground motion, structural vulnerability estimates of three aspects, and then combined with the characteristics of buildings to systematically integrate the estimation of earthquake disaster losses. Based on such an integrated system, this paper focuses on how to improve the estimation accuracy of earthquake disaster loss from four aspects of seismicity, seismic ground motion, structural vulnerability and sampling accuracy. Studies of seismicity have focused mainly on changes in seismogenic activity following the tsunami earthquake in Japan in 2011 and changes in the seismic activity in the western North Pacific, taking into account the time of the earthquake. Earthquake ground motion research is mainly the use of Japan’s tsunami earthquake in 2011 at more than 1,000 locations observed ground motion records to correct seismic ground motion estimation method. The study of structural vulnerability is based on the over 500,000 loss samples collected by Japan’s tsunami earthquake in 2011 and details the estimation of structural vulnerability. Finally, the use of focus sampling method to improve the traditional use of Monte Carlo method for simulating the probability of occurrence of seismic sampling accuracy.