【摘 要】
：
针对蒙特卡罗方法样本容量太大,效率不高的缺点,将重要抽样方法应用于概率潮流计算,提出了一种应用于电力系统概率潮流计算的重要抽样算法.首先利用蒙特卡罗方法模拟出负荷样
【机 构】
：
华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京102206
【出 处】
：
华北电力大学第八届研究生学术交流年会
论文部分内容阅读
针对蒙特卡罗方法样本容量太大,效率不高的缺点,将重要抽样方法应用于概率潮流计算,提出了一种应用于电力系统概率潮流计算的重要抽样算法.首先利用蒙特卡罗方法模拟出负荷样本,然后用核密度估计方法估计出负荷模型的密度函数,将之作为重要抽样密度函数,计算出支路潮流和节点电压的概率密度函数.最后,采用一个IEEE39节点的典型算例进行仿真计算,并且和常规的蒙特卡罗方法进行模拟仿真的结果进行比较.结果表明,文中提出的重要抽样的方法在保证计算精度的前提下,显著减小了抽样的方差,加快了迭代计算的收敛速度。
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