谱逼近方法在风功率预测中的应用分析

来源 :第一届全国能源与气象学术会议 | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:kaiping56
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  本文利用WRF模式谱逼近方法,对我国华北地区低层风场进行模拟对比试验,并把70米预报风速应用于风电场短期功率预测中。试验结果显示:1、模式预报风速和测风塔风速的相关性,使用谱逼近方法较之未使用谱逼近方法时高,一致性更好;2、通过对比短期风功率预测结果可知,在使用谱逼近方法的模式预报低层风速会有效降低预报偏差,预测精度更为准确。本文研究结果表明,谱逼近试验通过引入外源性周期特征因素项,调整了模式与大尺度驱动场之间的协调关系,提高低层风场的模拟水平从而使得风功率短期预测精度得到提升。
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