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本文利用一家基金管理公司的独特数据,考察了买方分析师与卖方分析师的盈利预测准确度差异及其产生原因。结果发现,与卖方分析师相比,买方分析师的盈利预测准确度显著较差。进一步分析表明,买方分析师准确度较差的原因可能有:(1)买方分析师的预测特征不同(如发布报告的频率较高、跟踪的时间较长);(2)盈利预测相对保守;(3)做好盈利预测的动力相对不足;(4)与管理层的信息沟通较少。本文首次提供了买方分析师盈利预测的证据,拓展了现有的分析师文献。
In this paper, we use the unique data of a fund management company to examine the differences in the profit forecast accuracy between buyer analysts and seller analysts and their causes. The result showed that the buyer analyst’s profit forecast accuracy was significantly worse than the seller’s analyst. Further analysis shows that the reasons for the poor accuracy of the buyer analyst may include: (1) different characteristics of the forecast of buyer analysts (such as higher frequency of reporting and longer follow-up); (2) relatively conservative earnings forecasts; (3) the motivation for making profit forecast is relatively insufficient; and (4) there is less information communication with management. This article, for the first time, provides evidence of buyer analyst earnings forecasts and expands on existing analyst literature.