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从农业旱灾的自然与社会双重属性出发,并考虑系统的不确定性,分析了农业旱灾风险。应用信息扩散理论计算了干旱出现机率,将灰色系统理论和风险分析理论相结合,在确定干旱出现机率的基础上计算农业旱灾灰色风险率,前者考虑了系统的模糊不确定性,后者考虑了对系统认知缺乏所产生的主观不确定性,完善了农业旱灾风险分析,为防灾减灾和开展政策性农业保险提供参考。
Starting from the natural and social attributes of agricultural droughts and considering the systematic uncertainty, the risks of agricultural droughts are analyzed. The information diffusion theory is used to calculate the occurrence probability of drought. Based on gray system theory and risk analysis theory, the gray risk rate of agricultural drought is calculated based on the probability of occurrence of drought. The former considers the fuzzy uncertainty of the system, the latter considers The subjective uncertainty caused by lack of cognition of the system improved the risk analysis of agricultural drought and provided reference for disaster prevention and reduction and policy agricultural insurance.