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基于农村居民现实最低养老需求,对我国财政的养老补贴支付能力进行测算分析。以修正恩格尔系数为基础测度了农村居民最低养老保险水平,并依据农村恩格尔系数及物价指数的历史变动趋势,预测了2010-2020年农村最低养老动态水平;利用财政收入规模的自回归模型预测了2010-2020年的财政收入规模,结合普惠型养老金总额应为财政收入的5%国际经验,对基本养老金以及最低养老需求占财政收入的比重进行了测算和评价。目前的基本养老金在短期内对改善农村老年人生活有重要作用,但长期来看还需要不断增加,应优化财政支出结构。
Based on the actual needs of the lowest living allowance of rural residents, this paper makes a calculation and analysis on the financial capacity of China’s pension subsidies. Based on the revised Engel coefficient, the minimum pension level of rural residents was measured. Based on the historical trend of Engel’s coefficient and price index in rural areas, the minimum pension level in rural areas from 2010 to 2020 was predicted. The self-regressive model of fiscal revenue was used to predict 2010-2020 fiscal revenue scale, combined with the general type of pensions should be 5% of financial revenue of international experience, the basic pension and the minimum pension needs as the proportion of fiscal revenue were measured and evaluated. The current basic pension plays an important role in improving the living conditions of the elderly in rural areas in the short term, but it needs to be continuously increased in the long run and the structure of fiscal expenditure should be optimized.