A water-resistant key strata model of a goaf floor prior to main roof weighting was developed to explore the relationship between water inrush from the floor and main roof weighting. The stress distribution,broken characteristics, and the risk area for water inrush of the water-resistant key strata were analysed using elastic thin plate theory. The formula of the maximum water pressure tolerated by the waterresistant key strata was deduced. The effects of the caved load of the goaf, the goaf size prior to main roof weighting, the advancing distance of the workface or weighting step, and the thickness of the waterresistant key strata on the breaking and instability of the water-resistant key strata were analysed.The results indicate that the water inrush from the floor can be predicted and prevented by controlling the initial or periodic weighting step with measures such as artificial forced caving, thus achieving safe mining conditions above confined aquifers. The findings provide an important theoretical basis for determining water inrush from the floor when mining above confined aquifers. A water-resistant key strata model of a goaf floor prior to main roof weighting was developed to explore the relationship between water inrush from the floor and main roof weighting. The stress distribution, broken characteristics, and the risk area for water inrush of the water The formula of the maximum water pressure tolerated by the water resistance key strata was deduced. The effects of the caved load of the goaf, the goaf size prior to main roof weighting, the advancing distance of the workface or weighting step, and the thickness of the waterresistant key strata on the breaking and instability of the water-resistant key strata were analyzed. The results indicate that the water inrush from the floor can be predicted and prevented by controlling the initial or periodic weighting step with measures such as artificial forced caving, thus achieving safe mining conditions above confined aquifers. mportant theoretical basis for determining water inrush from the floor when mining above confined aquifers.