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2001年,特别是“9.11”事件发生以后,各国股市一片低迷,世界经济一片萧条,各国的经济也全面下滑,以信息技术为代表的新技术革命处于低潮,全球经济面临着衰退的危险。对此问题,各界反映不一。经济学家薛敬孝从周期理论出发指出当前世界经济正运行在第五波上升期,在短期内不会出现大萧条。增长和发展是世界经济走向的总趋势。但增长和发展并不是直线的而是在波动中前进的。经济波动有规律性的波动,也有非规律性的波动。规律性的波动即为经济周期。非规律性的波动在很大程度上带有偶然性,而经济周期却带有必然性。
In 2001, especially after the “9.11” incident, stock markets in various countries slumped, the world economy was in a depression, the economies of all countries also declined in an all-round way, the new technological revolution represented by information technology was at a low ebb, and the global economy was in danger of recession . Different sectors have different opinions on this issue. Economist Xue Jingxiao from the cycle theory points out that the current world economy is running in the fifth wave of the rise, in the short term there will be no Great Depression. Growth and development are the general trend of the world economy. But growth and development are not linear but move forward in volatility. There are regular fluctuations in economic fluctuations, there are irregular fluctuations. The regular fluctuation is the economic cycle. Irregular fluctuations are largely contingent, but economic cycles are inevitable.