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１９世纪下半叶欧美国家和２０世纪下半叶东亚国家（地区）的历史经验都显示：关税（及 非关税）保护相对较高的时期经济增长较快，而保护较低的时期经济增长反而较慢。 理论显示：贸易与增长并没有必然的因果关系，贸易对增长的作用主要取决于它是 否有利于技术进步。从经济增长的不同阶段来看，在发展较落后的阶段，一定的保 护将有利于一国获得先进的技术，从而加快其增长；而当一国进入先进国家行列后， 技术进步主要依靠自主创新，这时较高的关税等保护将不利于其经济增长。
The historical experience of both Europe and the United States in the second half of the nineteenth century and the East Asian countries and regions in the second half of the 20th century shows that while tariff (and non-tariff) protection is relatively high, economic growth is faster, while economic growth at a lower protection period is reversed Slower. Theory shows that there is no necessary causal relationship between trade and growth. The role of trade in growth depends mainly on whether it is conducive to technological progress. Judging from different stages of economic growth, certain protection will help a country gain access to advanced technologies and thus accelerate its growth at a relatively backward stage. When a country enters the ranks of advanced countries, technological progress mainly relies on independent innovation , When higher tariffs and other protection will not be conducive to its economic growth.