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文章认为未来石油供应形势不容乐观,这从根本上由石油生产的规律所决定的,具体原因包括:(1)勘探高峰期发现的油田已经集体进入产量下降期而新增产能不足;(2)越来越多的国家过了产量高峰期而增产的国家数目不多且增产潜力不大;(3)欧佩克增产潜力有限。为应对石油供应形势严峻局面,我们应该在供应、消费和交通工具的能源转换上及早采取措施。
The article believes that the future oil supply situation is not optimistic, which is fundamentally determined by the law of petroleum production. The specific reasons include: (1) the oilfields discovered during the exploration peak have collectively entered the declining production period and the new production capacity is insufficient; (2) More and more countries have seen a small number of countries that have increased their production after the peak period of production and have little potential to increase production. (3) OPEC has limited potential for increasing production. In order to cope with the severe situation of oil supply, we should take early measures in the energy conversion of supply, consumption and transportation.