以南昌市新建县恒湖农场鄱阳湖茶叶港湿地为例,选取植物种类的高度、盖度和土壤温度、湿度、导电率、高程等共10个因子作为诱发钉螺孳生的环境因子,基于GIS空间分析,应用确定性系数概率模型,对10个因子的敏感性进行了研究。结果表明:钉螺易分布于下述地理环境:(1)南荻盖度在16%之上与南荻高度高于80 cm之上;(2)苔草盖度低于30%;(3)土壤的电导率低于0.09 m S/cm,温度在16~19℃,湿度较低,特别是在0.27%~0.34%区间;(4)研究区高程大于15 m。评价结果与实际钉螺分布情况十分吻合,表示该模型能够较好地应用于对钉螺孳生繁衍的预测。 Taking the Poyang Lake Tea Port Wetland in Henghu Farm, Xinchang County, Nanchang as an example, 10 factors including plant height, cover, soil temperature, humidity, conductivity and elevation were selected as environmental factors to induce snail breeding. Based on GIS space Analysis, using the probability coefficient of certainty coefficient model, the sensitivity of 10 factors were studied. The results showed that the snails were easily distributed in the following geographical environments: (1) the coverage of the south diurnal furrow was above 16% and the height of the south diogoide above 80 cm; (2) the coverage of the moss was below 30%; (3) The conductivity is lower than 0.09 m S / cm, the temperature is 16 ~ 19 ℃, the humidity is low, especially in the range of 0.27% ~ 0.34%. (4) The study area elevation is more than 15 m. The evaluation results are in good agreement with the actual distribution of Oncomelania snails, indicating that the model can be applied to the prediction of snail breeding.