8月以后,M2同比增速会逐渐上升至11%甚至12%的水平,不能单从M2的变化来判断整个社会的流动性情况。对中国而言,社会融资规模(TSF)这一货币政策调控指标对经济运行更为重要。8月12日,中国人民银行公布了7月中国新增信贷、M2、社会融资额全部低于预期。最让人吃惊的是,房贷占信贷的比重已突破100%。这些数据,又一次证明了社会融资规模的重要性。为什么会搞这个指标?因为我们几年前已经发现,我们国家主要是数量调控,也有价格调控,数量调控主要就是货币供应量M2,我们后来发现M2短期波动很厉害,而且和经济的关 After August, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 will gradually increase to 11% or even 12%. The change of M2 can not be used solely to judge the liquidity of the whole society. For China, the regulation of the social financing scale (TSF), a monetary policy regulation, is more important to the economy. August 12, the People’s Bank of China announced in July China’s new credit, M2, social financing all lower than expected. Most surprising is that the proportion of mortgages in credit has exceeded 100%. These data again prove the importance of social financing scale. Why do we engage in this indicator? Because we have discovered a few years ago, our country is mainly the number of regulation, but also price control, the amount of regulation is mainly money supply M2, we later found that M2 short-term volatility is very powerful, and economic