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综合分析拉动经济增长的“三驾马车”影响因素,预测2015年出口增速在7%左右,投资增长率为16%左右,消费实际增长率为10.5%左右。全年经济增长率略高于7%。由此判断,“十二五”期间可以基本完成经济增速换挡的任务,初步形成中高速增长的新常态。受市场供求关系和成本压力加大等发展条件深刻变化的影响,企业多年来依赖订单大量增加支撑的低水平、低成本数量扩张模式难以为继,必须进行转型和调整,将发展的重点由解决“有没有”转向“好不好”、“省不省”、“清洁不清洁”上。这是一个充满风险挑战的爬坡过坎过程。
Based on a comprehensive analysis of the “troika” factors driving economic growth, it is estimated that in 2015 the export growth will be around 7%, the investment growth rate will be around 16% and the real growth rate of consumption will be about 10.5%. The annual economic growth rate is slightly above 7%. Judging from this, we can basically accomplish the task of shifting economic growth during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” and initially form a new normal for medium and high-speed growth. Affected by profound changes in market conditions such as the supply and demand of the market and increased cost pressures, the low-level and low-cost expansion model that enterprises rely on for a long period of order growth is difficult to sustain and must be transformed and adjusted. “There is no ” Turn “Good or bad ”, “Provincial Incontinence ”, “Clean unclean ”. This is a challenging process of climbing the mountain.