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本文以动态权衡理论为基础,研究了中国上市公司现金持有动态调整行为。首先,构建现金持有均值回归模型,检验上市公司是否存在目标现金持有水平,研究结论支持了公司现金持有存在均值回归的假设;其次,构建修正的局部调整模型,估计上市公司向其目标现金持有水平进行动态调整的平均速度,从理论上验证了公司存在向其目标现金持有水平进行动态调整的行为;最后,分别构建关于并购决策与并购支付方式选择的因变量离散选择模型,从投融资政策上验证了公司会通过相应的投资政策与融资政策进行现金持有的目标调整行为。
Based on the dynamic trade-off theory, this paper studies the dynamic adjustment of cash holdings of Chinese listed companies. First of all, we construct a mean-of-cash regression model to test whether the listed companies have the target cash holdings. The research conclusion supports the assumption that the cash holdings of the companies have an average regression. Secondly, we construct a revised partial adjustment model to estimate the listed companies’ Cash holding level to dynamically adjust the average speed, which theoretically verified the existence of the company to its target level of cash holdings to dynamically adjust the behavior; Finally, the establishment of the decision-making on the merger and acquisition of M & A payment options discrete variable selection model, From the investment and financing policies to verify the company will be through the appropriate investment policies and financing policies for cash holdings of the target adjustment behavior.